[Satellite image of four tropical cyclones across the Pacific Ocean on 1 September 2015 (c)

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, are one of the deadliest and most damaging natural hazards. 

Nearly a billion people live in places that are impacted by tropical cyclones. Since 2000, tropical cyclones have caused more than US$2.4 trillion in damages globally.

The ³Ô¹ÏÍø College Storm Model (IRIS) is an innovative project that helps scientists and the public understand the likelihood of a damaging tropical cyclone and the role of climate change in making a tropical cyclone more likely and more intense. 

Learn more

The ³Ô¹ÏÍø College Storm Model explained

Attribution science and the ³Ô¹ÏÍø College Storm Model

Attribution of economic damages from tropical cyclones

 

Explore our attribution studies

Typhoon Fung-wong

The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased Fung-wong's maximum wind speed by 5%, eyewall rain by 10.5% and economic damage in the Philippines by 42%.

Typhoon Kalgaemi

The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased Kalgaemi's maximum wind speed by 3%, eyewall rain by 8.6% and the economic damage in Vietnam by 9%

Hurricane Melissa

The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased the intensity of a hurricane of the type of “Melissa” to an exceptional Category 5 at landfall. A “Melissa” type hurricane at landfall is about four times more likely in the 2025 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Typhoon Ragasa

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a Typhoon of the type “Ragasa” from a weak Category 3 to a strong Category 3 at landfall. A “Ragasa” type typhoon at landfall is about +49% more likely in the 2025 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Tropical Cyclone Chido

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a Tropical Cyclone of the type “Chido" from a Category 3 to Category 4. A “Chido” type is about +40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Hurricane Milton

The intensity of "Milton" type hurricanes at landfall are about 40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial time baseline. We also estimate that nearly half of the loss in Florida of a “Milton” type can be attributed to climate change. Find the analysis here.

Hurricane Helene

The intensity of "Helene" type Category 4 hurricanes at landfall was about twice more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial time baseline. We also estimate that nearly half of the loss in Florida of a 'Helene' type Category 4 can be attributed to climate change. Find the analysis here.

Previous studies

January-August 2024

Typhoon Shanshan

A "Shanshan" type typhoon at landfall is about 36% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Typhoon Gaemi

Typhoon Gaemi was a destructive Category 4 West Pacific typhoon. Typhoons reaching Taiwan like Gaemi have become about 50% more likely due to human-caused climate change. 

Hurricane Beryl

Hurricane Beryl was a Category 4 storm that made landfall near Jamaica in July 2024. IRIS estimates that, at landfall, Hurricane Beryl was a once-in-35-year event. 

Contact us

For more information, please contact: grantham.media@imperial.ac.uk.